In The News

David Sables, CEO, and the Sentinel Team appear regularly on and in various media, commentating and giving insight on industry issues. David is a regular columnist within ‘the Grocer’ magazine, as well as being a contributor to Forbes.

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I’ve just had a call from a reporter asking for comment on the heinous crime of ‘shrinkflation’. This happens at least once a year. Whenever someone notices a Creme Egg got smaller or a box has less powder in it, the hares go racing on a consumer deception they’d love to be the first to expose. Imagine their disappointment when, year after year, I explain reducing pack size or weight... Read More

On top of an acute inflationary environment, we now have a European war that will take it to a new level. I believe the UK economy is on the brink of stagflation – a combination of persistent high inflation, a stagnant economy and increased unemployment. Keeping jobs will be critical. The effect of the conflict on global commodities and fuel is obvious. But soaring costs of labour, transport, feed, fertiliser... Read More

As predicted, there is no sign of let-up on rising input costs and we are in an upward spiral of price hikes. Discounter and private-label shares are coming through as a result, and the major mults are pushing back on justifiable supplier cost price increases (CPI) as best they can. Unable to turn the tide, the best tool retailers have in this situation is to simply slow the flow. That... Read More

Inflation is a curse for many, and this series of seemingly relentless cost increases is far from over. Back in September 2021, I predicted inflation would top 5% before Christmas on BBC’s Today programme. Seeing the ONS published 5.4% for December, I feel obliged to add my view to the matrix of analysts assessing where it is heading in 2022. Mine is a unique insight that comes from a position... Read More

Convenience is the new weapon in the battle against Aldi and Lidl, says David Sables, CEO of Sentinel Management Consultants It’s great sport tracking retailers’ shares over the Christmas period. However, a tactically strong Christmas execution is no longer a good indicator of long-term prospects in grocery. There are too many disruptive dynamics in today’s market. Breaking it down, the primary drivers of shopper loyalty remain price (at a given... Read More

I’m glad my column back in August has drawn industry attention to retailers’ outrageous demands for proprietary informationon cost price increase ‘justification forms’. As the discussion continues, one phrase that keeps grating on me is ‘12-week notice’. This suggestion that this notice period is necessary on CPIs is wrong. Do check, of course, that no signed supplier agreement clause commits you to a written 12 weeks’ notice. Beyond that, it is not... Read More

The large grocery suppliers fared better in lockdown as consumers stocked up on big brands in their time of adversity. This was not just down to consumers becoming less adventurous when all around them was turning to mush – it was also driven by the retailers’ choice to simplify ranges in their quest to keep a core weekly shop available. The net effect of all this is major retailer ranges... Read More

Nothing brings out the nervousness of suppliers like taking a cost price increase (CPI) to large customers. Buyers have always demanded to see a justification for CPIs, and suppliers have always mumbled responses about foreign exchange, transport costs or the global price of raw materials. Until now. Recently buyers have made demands for line-by-line, component-by-component breakdown of input costs on spreadsheet forms. These new forms demand access to some of... Read More

Bricks & mortar retailers in the U.K. will soon see a surge of shoppers who once again feel safe in physical stores having avoided them for the past 14 months. But this first contrast to online shopping will be disappointing unless the experience changes. Shoppers will not fall back in love with store shopping because whilst touch and feel has appeal, the thrill of picking up an avocado in person... Read More

Bricks & mortar will soon see a surge of shoppers who once again feel safe in physical stores, having avoided them for the past 14 months. But I doubt they’ll fall back in love with physical stores – this first contrast to online will be disappointing. Touchy-feely shopping has appeal. Still, picking up an avocado in person can’t match the simplicity and convenience of online. And who wants to buy... Read More